Doing the math

It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. By my hasty count, Obama needs only 32 more electoral votes to clinch it. All this bullshit about how close the race is in PA, OH, MN and so on is just that -- bullshit. I prefer the BBC's analysis (which amounts to, "don't be stupid").

By my estimation, Obama has 238 votes in the bag. Here's how I count things up: Obama is going to win IL, NY, and CA (107 electoral votes). He will also win WA, OR, MN, and WI (why? Because Democrats always do! Don't listen to Wolf Blitzer, look it up!) (38 electoral votes; total of 145).

Obama is also a sure bet to win VT, MA, NJ, DE, RI, DC, MD, and I think, NH (54 electoral votes; total of 199). I'll just assume that Connecticut wants to continue to act the fool for Joe Lieberman and so I am not going to award its electoral votes to Obama. I would also, just to be safe, assume a 3-to-1 split in Maine (the only state to award by proportion) for Obama. That brings the total to 202.

Then, let's just assume that the western states will all continue their stellar records of voting for big assholes that look like most western Americans. Obama, by my reckoning, will not win a single state east of California and west of Missouri. Oh well. Maybe we can build, and then detonate, several nuclear power plants in Utah or something.

I also do not believe Obama can win in the South, yet. Maybe in four years. Maybe. But, for the sake of argument, let's say that he does not win a single southern state. Not Florida. Not NC. Not VA. And, despite Robert Byrd's best crankering, not even W. VA. Duh, light switch?

So, needing 68 electoral votes to win, and running out of options, what's left on the map? Indiana. Um, no. As we have often noted here, we have never seen so many rebel flags as during one 3-hour drive through the CornBuckle, where the schools don't teach history, or else the historians don't have maps.

Iowa? Maybe. But I wouldn't count on it. Iowa is a flaky place full of flaky people, and though Obama was stellar there during the caucus, that was a caucus. And, you cannot trust a young, first-time voter not to get baked and sleep through election day. Hey, that's a great idea for a movie. I wonder if anyone has ever made that film...

I like Missouri to go to Obama. This is tenuous, I guess, but Missouri has trended left since the Clinton days and it has a large bloc of active minority voters. Also, the religious nuts couldn't get John Motherfucking Ashcroft elected there over a dead guy, so McCain's chances with the same batshit demographic are poor to say the least. So, the tally is now up to 213 electoral votes.

Hawaii goes to Obama. Yay. 217 votes.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are what's left. I believe Obama is going to win PA, so that's another 21 electoral votes and gets him to 238.

So, the speculation begins:

If Obama wins Ohio and Michigan, he gets to 275 electoral votes and he wins.

If Obama wins Ohio and Iowa and Connecticut, he gets to 273 electoral votes and he wins.

If Obama wins Michigan, Iowa, and Connecticut, he gets to 270 electoral votes and he wins.

If Obama wins either Michigan or Ohio and gets just one southern state, like Virginia, and loses Missouri, he gets to 272 electoral votes and he wins.

If Obama gets his likely votes and wins Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, Iowa, and Connecticut, he gets to 290 electoral votes. If he wins Florida (not impossible), it's a landslide and he gets 317 electoral votes.

Looks promising, no?