Is McCain Going to Get Buried?

A Washington Post poll has Obama ahead among likely voters, 52-43%. That's a lot.

The Republicans are getting hammered on the economy, rightly, and Obama has done well to keep the pressure on. And we haven't even gotten to the Keating Five part yet, or discussed in detail how McCain's campaign manager is in the pocket of the mortgage corporations.

On top of this new, wider Obama edge, the polls are and continue to be suspect, or as I say, wrong. The reasons for this are many and ought to be clear (only calling people with home phones, weighting party ID equally even though there are more registered Democrats -- a whole shitload more -- than Republicans, failing to include Obama's newly-registered supporters in the ranks of "likely voters"). Also, there will be fraud. (That should be a movie.)

But let's say the polls are inaccurate, at the very least. What will happen on election day, as the media begin to sift the reults on the nightly news? Obama wins the Northeast in a landslide, giving him a big lead in the popular vote and Electoral College right off the bat.

Obama wins one southern state, increasing his lead in the EC. McCain wins the rest of the South, but not by nearly as many votes as Bush did (or as we expected, based on final pre-election polling). That means NC is within 1 million votes. FL is within 3 points. SC is less than 10 points. This equals an enormous (maybe insurmountable) Obama lead in the popular vote.

In the Midwest, Obama wins IL huge, WI big, MN comfortably, and MI barely. But he runs very close in IN, a shocker. He wins IA in a landslide. He's much closer in MO and OH than anyone believed.

Obama loses every great plains state, and Texas. But again, not by as much as we thought he would. His popular vote total is ridiculous by this point, maybe 5 million above McCain's.

Obama wins CO by a significant margin. He also wins NM and barely loses NV. CA, OR, and WA all go to Obama, who is President and has about 65 million votes to McCain's 50 million. This is less, in total, than the number of people who supposedly voted in 2004, when voting machines returned a few "9 million votes cast" reports in 500 vote precincts. But, many Republicans, it turns out, stayed home out of sheer indifference. And first-time voters came out in high numbers for Obama. And those 11 million more registered Democrats? All for Obama. The media will be scratching its head and wondering if maybe there was some kind of miscount, because Republicans are supposed to win elections...

On the subject of fraud:

In 2004, John Kerry had an insurmountable lead in the exit polls. But, when the final vote tally was reported, Bush had somehow won solidly. In order to make the exit polls fit the actual vote count, pollsters "weighted" (i.e., "fucked with") the data to make it "match;" but this led to a situation in which Bush's "win" can only be explained by an impossibility. There were about 125 million votes cast in 2004 (or, some 20 million more than in 2000). Almost 3 million votes were not counted (because of challenges, fraud, suppression, or incorrect procedure). That leaves 122 million votes.

Bush got 50 million votes in 2000 (riiiiiight). Between 2000 and 2004, by normal mortality rates, about 1.5 million of those people had died. However, in order for Bush to "win" in 2004, he would have had to gain more female voters than Kerry, more first-time voters than Kerry, more black voters than Kerry, and also, 108% of the people who voted for him in 2000 would have had to vote for him again. That is, even after he "received" all this new support (and don't forget the phantom "3 million evangelicals" who appeared for one vote and then disappeared again, forever), Bush would still have had to get all 50 million of his 2000 supporters, plus the dead ones, plus another 4 million votes. From somewhere. Meanwhile, Kerry would have had to lose black support, female support, new voter support (despite the Democrats having registered more new voters...) and also have lost about 25% of the Gore voters from 2000.

Bush's approval rating in 2004 was 48% just before the election. Presidents under 50% approval do not win reelection, much less gain new supporters on election day. That election was stolen, and you don't need fancy algorithms to know it. Simple math will do: 122 million - 50 million (Bush 2000 voters) = 72 million. Kerry votes = 59 million. Bush's "new" one-time-only voters = 13 million. 13 million new voters = impossible, unless Bush attracted one-quarter of Gore 2000 voters (or a similar group of impossible voters).

Also, the smoking gun for a fixed election: according to the final, official vote tally, Bush lost support in solid Republican areas (reflecting actual disgust among conservatives with Bush -- they voted against him in "symbolic" fashion in areas where he was guaranteed a victory, and where the GOP had no reason or, probably, resources, to enforce the fix), but Bush gained votes in heavily-Democratic, urban areas. Does anyone know a Democrat who voted for Bush over Kerry in 2004? No? QED, motherfuckers.